Photo: Unsplash
EL Niño events can be good for surfers. It’s pretty simple: bigger storms make bigger waves. But good waves are just a silver lining to a climate pattern that can be very, very destructive. This year’s so-called “Super El Niño” is already breaking records, and the waves have come with it. But it’s not just surfable waves a powerful El Niño makes it’s Kelvin waves, too. And those pack a real wallop. A planetary sized wallop. Kelvin waves, for those unaquainted, are basically a sort of pulse of warm water that moves east along the equator or along a coastline. In this case, we’re talking about California’s coastline, because this year’s enormous El Niño is likely to send one there………Comntinue reading…
By: Alexander Haro
Source: The Inertia
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Critics:
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular pattern but do have some appearance of cycles. The occurrence of ENSO is not easily predictable. It affects the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics, and has links (teleconnections) to higher-latitude regions of the world.
The warming phase of the sea surface temperature is known as “El Niño” and the cooling phase as “La Niña”. The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric oscillation, which is coupled with the sea temperature change. El Niño is associated with higher than normal sea level air pressure over Indonesia and Australia, and across the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean.
La Niña has roughly the reverse pattern: high pressure over the central and eastern Pacific and lower pressure through much of the rest of the tropics and subtropics. The two phenomena typically last approximately one year each and typically occur every two to seven years with varying intensity, with neutral periods of lower intensity interspersed. El Niño events can be more intense, but La Niña events may repeat and last longer.
A key mechanism of ENSO is the Bjerknes feedback (named after Jacob Bjerknes in 1969) in which the atmospheric changes alter the sea temperatures that, in turn, alter the atmospheric winds in a positive feedback. Weaker easterly trade winds result in a surge of warm surface waters to the east and reduced ocean upwelling on the equator.
In turn, this leads to warmer sea surface temperatures (called El Niño), a weaker Walker circulation (an east—west overturning circulation in the atmosphere) and even weaker trade winds. Ultimately, the warm waters in the western tropical Pacific are depleted enough so that conditions return to normal. The exact mechanisms that cause the oscillation are unclear and are being studied.
Each country that monitors the ENSO has a different threshold for what constitutes an El Niño or La Niña event, which is tailored to their specific interests. El Niño and La Niña affect the global climate and disrupt normal weather patterns, which can lead to intense storms in some places and droughts in others. El Niño events cause short-term (approximately one year in length) spikes in global average surface temperature, while La Niña events cause short term surface cooling.
Therefore, the relative frequency of El Niño compared to La Niña events can affect global temperature trends on timescales of around ten years. The countries most affected by ENSO are developing countries that are bordering the Pacific Ocean and dependent on agriculture and fishing. In climate change science, ENSO is known as one of the internal climate variability phenomena. Future trends in ENSO due to climate change are uncertain, although climate change exacerbates the effects of droughts and floods.
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report summarized the scientific knowledge in 2021 for the future of ENSO as follows: “In the long term, it is very likely that the precipitation variance related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation will increase”. The scientific consensus is also that “it is very likely that rainfall variability related to changes in the strength and spatial extent of ENSO teleconnections will lead to significant changes at regional scale”.
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