Thursday, October 23, 2025

Smart Move: AI and Future of Weather Forecasting For Pilots

Courtesy: NOAA

Looking back for the past couple of years, artificial intelligence has been one of the hottest topics in the news and on social media. If you had any idea that AI was just another fad like the hula hoop, well, it’s not anymore.  Whether you like it or not, in the decades to come it will only continue to dominate our daily conversation and politics. It has the potential to change how we communicate, create, and even govern……Continue reading….

By: Scott Dennstaedt, Ph.D

Source: Flying Mag

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Critics: 

Initial attempts to use artificial intelligence began in the 2010s. Huawei’s Pangu-Weather model, Google’s GraphCast, WindBorne’s WeatherMesh model, Nvidia’s FourCastNet, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System, or AIFS all appeared in 2022–2023. In 2024, AIFS started to publish real-time forecasts, showing specific skill at predicting hurricane tracks, but lower-performing on the intensity changes of such storms relative to physics-based models.

Such models use no physics-based atmosphere modeling or large language models. Instead, they learn purely from data such as the ECMWF re-analysis ERA5. These models typically require far less compute than physics-based models. Microsoft’s Aurora system offers global 10-day weather and 5-day air pollution (CO,2, NO, NO,2SO2O3, and particulates) forecasts with claimed accuracy similar to physics-based models, but at orders-of-magnitude lower cost.

Aurora was trained on more than a million hours of data from six weather/climate models. In 2024, a group of researchers at Google’s DeepMind AI research laboratories published a paper in Nature to describe their machine-learning model, called GenCast, that is expected to produce more accurate forecasts than the best traditional weather forecasting systems.

In a study conducted using the AIFS, Lang et al. (2024) presented 30-day ensemble simulations of the Madden–Julian oscillation. Most end users of forecasts are members of the general public. Thunderstorms can create strong winds and dangerous lightning strikes that can lead to deaths, power outages, and widespread hail damage. Heavy snow or rain can bring transportation and commerce to a stand-still, as well as cause flooding in low-lying areas.

Excessive heat or cold waves can sicken or kill those with inadequate utilities, and droughts can impact water usage and destroy vegetation. Several countries employ government agencies to provide forecasts and watches/warnings/advisories to the public to protect life and property and maintain commercial interests. Knowledge of what the end user needs from a weather forecast must be taken into account to present the information in a useful and understandable way.

Examples include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service (NWS) and Environment Canada’s Meteorological Service (MSC). Traditionally, newspaper, television, and radio have been the primary outlets for presenting weather forecast information to the public. In addition, some cities had weather beacons. Increasingly, the internet is being used due to the vast amount of specific information that can be found.

In all cases, these outlets update their forecasts on a regular basis. A major part of modern weather forecasting is the severe weather alerts and advisories that the national weather services issue in the case that severe or hazardous weather is expected. This is done to protect life and property. Some of the most commonly known of severe weather advisories are the severe thunderstorm and tornado warning, as well as the severe thunderstorm and tornado watch.

Other forms of these advisories include winter weather, high wind, flood, tropical cyclone, and fog. Severe weather advisories and alerts are broadcast through the media, including radio, using emergency systems as the Emergency Alert System, which break. The low temperature forecast for the current day is calculated using the lowest temperature found between 7 pm that evening through 7 am the following morning.

So, in short, today’s forecasted low is most likely tomorrow’s low temperature. There are a number of sectors with their own specific needs for weather forecasts and specialist services are provided to these users as given below: Because the aviation industry is especially sensitive to the weather, accurate weather forecasting is essential. Fog or exceptionally low ceilings can prevent many aircraft from landing and taking off. Turbulence and icing are also significant in-flight hazards.

Thunderstorms are a problem for all aircraft because of severe turbulence due to their updrafts and outflow boundaries, icing due to the heavy precipitation, as well as large hail, strong winds, and lightning, all of which can cause severe damage to an aircraft in flight. Volcanic ash is also a significant problem for aviation, as aircraft can lose engine power within ash clouds. On a day-to-day basis airliners are routed to take advantage of the jet stream tailwind to improve fuel efficiency.

Aircrews are briefed prior to takeoff on the conditions to expect en route and at their destination. Additionally, airports often change which runway is being used to take advantage of a headwind. This reduces the distance required for takeoff, and eliminates potential crosswinds. Commercial and recreational use of waterways can be limited significantly by wind direction and speed, wave periodicity and heights, tides, and precipitation. These factors can each influence the safety of marine transit.

Consequently, a variety of codes have been established to efficiently transmit detailed marine weather forecasts to vessel pilots via radio, for example the MAFOR (marine forecast).Typical weather forecasts can be received at sea through the use of RTTY, Navtex and Radiofax. Farmers rely on weather forecasts to decide what work to do on any particular day. For example, drying hay is only feasible in dry weather.

Prolonged periods of dryness can ruin cotton, wheat, and corn crops. While corn crops can be ruined by drought, their dried remains can be used as a cattle feed substitute in the form of silage. Frosts and freezes play havoc with crops both during the spring and fall. For example, peach trees in full bloom can have their potential peach crop decimated by a spring freeze. Orange groves can suffer significant damage during frosts and freezes, regardless of their timing.

Forecasting of wind, precipitation and humidity is essential for preventing and controlling wildfires. Indices such as the Forest fire weather index and the Haines Index, have been developed to predict the areas more at risk of fire from natural or human causes. Conditions for the development of harmful insects can also be predicted by forecasting the weather.

Electricity and gas companies rely on weather forecasts to anticipate demand, which can be strongly affected by the weather. They use the quantity termed the degree day to determine how strong of a use there will be for heating (heating degree day) or cooling (cooling degree day). These quantities are based on a daily average temperature of 65 °F (18 °C). Cooler temperatures force heating degree days (one per degree Fahrenheit), while warmer temperatures force cooling degree days.

In winter, severe cold weather can cause a surge in demand as people turn up their heating. Similarly, in summer a surge in demand can be linked with the increased use of air conditioning systems in hot weather. By anticipating a surge in demand, utility companies can purchase additional supplies of power or natural gas before the price increases, or in some circumstances, supplies are restricted through the use of brownouts and blackouts.

Increasingly, private companies pay for weather forecasts tailored to their needs so that they can increase their profits or avoid large losses. For example, supermarket chains may change the stocks on their shelves in anticipation of different consumer spending habits in different weather conditions. Weather forecasts can be used to invest in the commodity market, such as futures in oranges, corn, soybeans, and oil.

The British Royal Navy, working with the Met Office, has its own specialist branch of weather observers and forecasters, as part of the Hydrographic and Meteorological (HM) specialisation, who monitor and forecast operational conditions across the globe, to provide accurate and timely weather and oceanographic information to submarines, ships and Fleet Air Arm aircraft.

A mobile unit in the Royal Air Force, working with the Met Office, forecasts the weather for regions in which British and allied armed forces are deployed. A group based at Camp Bastion used to provide forecasts for the British armed forces in Afghanistan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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