Friday, October 11, 2024

The Robotaxi Revolution Is Coming 

It’s amazing to think how far technology has come in the past 50 years. Five decades ago, accessing the internet or taking pictures from a mobile phone was unheard of. When the first cell phone launched in 1973, it weighed about two-and-a-half pounds. And the battery lasted about 20 minutes. Then, 20 years later, the DynaTAC 880X came to market, which is known as the first smartphone….Continue reading….

By:  Louis Navellier

Source: InvestorPlace

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Critics:

A robotaxi, also known as robot taxi, robo-taxi, self-driving taxi or driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company. Some studies have hypothesized that robotaxis operated in an autonomous mobility on demand (AMoD) service could be one of the most rapidly adopted applications of autonomous cars at scale and a major mobility solution, especially in urban areas.

Moreover, they could have a very positive impact on road safety, traffic congestion and parking. Robotaxis could also reduce urban pollution and energy consumption, since these services will most probably use electric cars and for most of the rides, less vehicle size and range is necessary compared to individually owned vehicles. The expected reduction in number of vehicles means less embodied energy; however energy consumption for redistribution of empty vehicles must be taken into account.

Robotaxis would reduce operating costs by eliminating the need for a human driver, which might make it an affordable form of transportation and increase the popularity of transportation-as-a-service (TaaS) as opposed to individual car ownership. Such developments could lead to job destruction and new challenges concerning operator liabilities. In 2023, some robotaxis caused congestion when they blocked roads due to lost cellular connectivity, and others failed to properly yield to emergency vehicles.

As of 2023 there has been only one fatality associated with a robotaxi, a pedestrian who was hit by an Uber test vehicle in 2018. Predictions of the widespread and rapid introduction of robotaxis – by as early as 2018 – have not been realized. There are a number of trials underway in cities around the world, some of which are open to the public and generate revenue. However, as of 2021, questions have been raised as to whether the progress of self-driving technology has stalled and whether issues of social acceptance, cybersecurity and cost have been addressed.

So far all the trials have involved specially modified passenger cars with space for two or four passengers sitting in the back seats behind a partition. LIDAR, cameras and other sensors have been used on all vehicles. The cost of early vehicles was estimated in 2020 at up to US$400,000 due to custom manufacture and specialized sensors. However, the prices of some components such as LIDAR have fallen significantly.

In January 2021, Waymo stated its costs were approximately $180,000 per vehicle, and its operating cost at $0.30 per mile (~$0.19 per km), well below Uber and Lyft, but this excludes the cost of fleet technicians and customer support. Baidu announced in June 2021 it would start producing robotaxis for 500,000 yuan ($77,665) each Tesla has discussed a sub-$25,000 Tesla Robotaxi, and as of 2023 is designing an assembly line that will accommodate the vehicle.

Several companies are testing robotaxi services, especially in the United States and in China. All operate only in a geo-fenced area. Service areas for robotaxis, also known as the Objective Design Domain (ODD), are specially designated zones where robotaxis can safely provide service.[26] As of 2024, Baidu’s Apollo Go had carried the most passengers, over 6 million by April 2024.

Other providers in China include AutoX, DiDi, Pony.ai, WeRide, all operating in 10 or more cities. In the US, Waymo is the most prominent provider, operating in San Francisco, Phoenix, and Los Angeles. A 2024 study of Waymo indicated an 85% reduction in injury crashes per mile driven. Separate to these efforts have been trials of larger shared autonomous vehicles on fixed routes with designated stops, able to carry between 6 and 10 passengers. These shuttle buses operate at low speeds.

In February 2018 Arizona granted Waymo a Transportation Network Company permit. In February 2022 the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) issued Drivered Deployment permits to Cruise and Waymo to allow passenger service in autonomous vehicles with a safety driver present in the vehicle. These carriers must hold a valid California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) Deployment permit and meet the requirements of the CPUC Drivered Deployment program.

In June 2022, Cruise received approval to operate a commercial robotaxi service in San Francisco. In April 2022, China gave Baidu and Pony.ai its first permits to deploy robotaxis without safety drivers on open roads within a 23 square mile area in the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area. In August 2023, the CPUC approved granting additional operating authority for Cruise LLC and Waymo LLC to conduct commercial passenger service using vehicles without safety drivers in San Francisco.

The approval includes the ability for both companies to charge fares for rides at any time of day. In August 2016, MIT spinoff NuTonomy was the first company to make robotaxis available to the public, starting to offer rides with a fleet of 6 modified Renault Zoes and Mitsubishi i-MiEVs in a limited area in Singapore. NuTonomy later signed three significant partnerships to develop its robotaxi service: with Grab, Uber’s rival in Southeast Asia, with Groupe PSA, which is supposed to provide the company with Peugeot 3008 SUVs and the last one with Lyft to launch a robotaxi service in Boston.

In August 2017, Cruise Automation, a self-driving startup acquired by General Motors in 2016, launched the beta version of a robotaxi service for its employees in San Francisco using a fleet of 46 Chevrolet Bolt EVs. Uber began development of self-driving vehicles in early 2015. In September 2016, the company started a trial allowing a select group of users of its ride-hailing service in Pittsburgh to order robotaxis from a fleet of 14 modified Ford Fusions. 

The test extended to San Francisco with modified Volvo XC90s before being relocated to Tempe, Arizona in February 2017. In March 2017, one of Uber’s robotaxis crashed in self-driving mode in Arizona, which led the company to suspend its tests before resuming them a few days later. In March 2018, Uber paused self-driving vehicle testing after the death of Elaine Herzberg in Tempe, Arizona, a pedestrian struck by an Uber vehicle while attempting to cross the street, while the onboard engineer was watching videos. Uber settled with the victim’s family.

In January 2021, Uber sold its self driving division, Advanced Technologies Group (ATG), to Aurora Innovation for $4 billion while also investing $400 million into Aurora for a 26% ownership stake.

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