Monday, July 1, 2024

Why 8,000 Is The Most Important Number For Your Retirement Plan



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My Uber driver and I struck up a conversation about the Orlando traffic and weather. The chatter soon drifted into stories about his experiences living and driving in Florida. I soon learned my driver’s name was Bob. Raising his voice, and turning to get a look at my face in his rearview mirror, Bob asked me, “How old do you think I am?”

I am always nervous to make such a guess — uttering a number either too old, or too young, can chill the air. But, before I could make a guess, Bob volunteered his age with a wry smile, “I am 81 years old and still working! Heck of a thing, don’t you think?

81, and still working.”Bob’s voice trailed off, as he gently turned the wheel steering his Camry off the highway into the driveway of my hotel.  At a volume almost too low to be heard, he muttered, “I had no idea it would be so long.” “What’s that?” I asked. Bob’s eyes darted to the rearview mirror again staring back at me. He replied flatly. “Retirement.….Continue reading….

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Source: Why 8,000 Is The Most Important Number For Your Retirement Plan

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Many factors affect people’s retirement decisions. Retirement funding education is a big factor that affects the success of an individual’s retirement experience. Social Security plays an important role because most individuals solely rely on Social Security as their only retirement option, when Social Security’s trust funds are expected to be depleted by 2034.

 Knowledge affects an individual’s retirement decisions by simply finding more reliable retirement options such as Individual Retirement Accounts or Employer-Sponsored Plans. In countries around the world, people are much more likely to retire at the early and normal retirement ages of the public pension system (e.g., ages 62 and 65 in the U.S.).

This pattern cannot be explained by different financial incentives to retire at these ages since typically retirement benefits at these ages are approximately actuarially fair; that is, the present value of lifetime pension benefits (pension wealth) conditional on retiring at age a is approximately the same as pension wealth conditional on retiring one year later at age a+1.

Nevertheless, a large literature has found that individuals respond significantly to financial incentives relating to retirement (e.g., to discontinuities stemming from the Social Security earnings test or the tax system). Greater wealth tends to lead to earlier retirement since wealthier individuals can essentially “purchase” additional leisure.

Generally, the effect of wealth on retirement is difficult to estimate empirically since observing greater wealth at older ages may be the result of increased saving over the working life in anticipation of earlier retirement. However, many economists have found creative ways to estimate wealth effects on retirement and typically find that they are small.

For example, one paper exploits the receipt of an inheritance to measure the effect of wealth shocks on retirement using data from the HRS. The authors find that receiving an inheritance increases the probability of retiring earlier than expected by 4.4 percentage points, or 12 percent relative to the baseline retirement rate, over an eight-year period.

A great deal of attention has surrounded how the Financial crisis of 2007–2008 and subsequent Great Recession are affecting retirement decisions, with the conventional wisdom saying that fewer people will retire since their savings have been depleted; however recent research suggests that the opposite may happen.

Using data from the HRS, researchers examined trends in defined benefit (DB) vs. defined contribution (DC) pension plans and found that those nearing retirement had only limited exposure to the recent stock market decline and thus are not likely to substantially delay their retirement.

At the same time, using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), another study estimates that mass layoffs are likely to lead to an increase in retirement almost 50% larger than the decrease brought about by the stock market crash, so that on net retirements are likely to increase in response to the crisis.

More information tells of how many who retire will continue to work, but not in the career they have had for the majority of their life. Job openings will increase in the next 5 years due to retirements of the baby boomer generation. The Over 50 population is actually the fastest growing labor groups in the US.

A great deal of research has examined the effects of health status and health shocks on retirement. It is widely found that individuals in poor health generally retire earlier than those in better health. This does not necessarily imply that poor health status leads people to retire earlier, since in surveys retirees may be more likely to exaggerate their poor health status to justify their earlier decision to retire.

This justification bias, however, is likely to be small. In general, declining health over time, as well as the onset of new health conditions, have been found to be positively related to earlier retirement. Health conditions that can cause someone to retire include hypertensiondiabetes mellitussleep apneajoint diseases, and hyperlipidemia.

Most people are married when they reach retirement age; thus, spouse’s employment status may affect one’s decision to retire. On average, husbands are three years older than their wives in the U.S., and spouses often coordinate their retirement decisions. Thus, men are more likely to retire if their wives are also retired than if they are still in the labor force, and vice versa.

Overall, income after retirement can come from state pensions, occupational pensions, private savings and investments (private pension funds, owned housing), donations (e.g., by children), and social benefits. In some countries an additional lump sum is granted, according to the years of work and the average pay; this is usually provided by the employer.

On a personal level, the rising cost of living during retirement is a serious concern to many older adults. Health care costs play an important role. Provision of state pensions is a significant drain on a government’s budget. As life expectancy increases and the health of older people improves with medical advances, the age of entitlement to a pension has been increasing progressively since about 2010.

Older people are more prone to sickness, and the cost of health care in retirement is large. Most countries provide universal health insurance coverage for seniors, although in the United States many people retire before they become eligible for Medicare health cover at 65 years of age.

Retirement might coincide with important life changes; a retired worker might move to a new location, for example a retirement community, thereby having less frequent contact with their previous social context and adopting a new lifestyle. Often retirees volunteer for charities and other community organizations. Tourism is a common marker of retirement and for some becomes a way of life, such as for so-called grey nomads.

Some retired people even choose to go and live in warmer climates in what is known as retirement migration. It has been found that Americans have six lifestyle choices as they age: continuing to work full-time, continuing to work part-time, retiring from work and becoming engaged in a variety of leisure activities, retiring from work and becoming involved in a variety of recreational and leisure activities, retiring from work and later returning to work part-time, and retiring from work and later returning to work full-time.

An important note to make from these lifestyle definitions are that four of the six involve working. America is facing an important demographic change in that the Baby Boomer generation is now reaching retirement age. This poses two challenges: whether there will be a sufficient number of skilled workers in the work force, and whether the current pension programs will be sufficient to support the growing number of retired people.

The reasons that some people choose to never retire, or to return to work after retiring include not only the difficulty of planning for retirement but also wages and fringe benefits, expenditure of physical and mental energy, production of goods and services, social interaction, and social status may interact to influence an individual’s work force participation decision.

Often retirees are called upon to care for grandchildren and occasionally aged parents. For many it gives them more time to devote to a hobby or sport such as golf or sailing. On the other hand, many retirees feel restless and suffer from depression as a result of their new situation.

The newly retired are one of the most vulnerable social groups to become depressed most likely due to retirement coinciding with a deteriorating health status and increased care-giving responsibilities. Retirement coincides with deterioration of one’s health that correlates with increasing age and this likely plays a major role in increased rates of depression in retirees.

Longitudinal and cross-sectional studies have shown that healthy elderly and retired people are as happy or happier and have an equal quality of life as they age as compared to younger employed adults, therefore retirement in and of itself is not likely to contribute to development of depression.

Research around what retirees would ideally like to have a fulfilling life after retiring, found the most important factors were “physical comfort, social integration, contribution, security, autonomy and enjoyment”. Many people in the later years of their lives, due to failing health, require assistance, sometimes in extremely expensive treatments – in some countries – being provided in a nursing home. Those who need care, but are not in need of constant assistance, may choose to live in a retirement home.

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