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For countless entrepreneurs, the tried-and-true way of finding funders and staffing a startup is through cross-class connections — yet too few of them are properly focused on continually broadening their networks.
There are plenty of other important steps along the way to startup success: revenue growth, hiring the right talent, market knowledge, the list goes on. But there’s one metric that deserves considerable attention in that process: broadening your answer to the age-old adage, “It’s not always about what you know, but who you know…..Story continues…
Source: Starting a Business Is Impossible Without One Thing — and It’s Not Cash | Entrepreneur
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There were great increases in productivity, industrial production and real per capita product throughout the period from 1870 to 1890 that included the Long Depression and two other recession. There were also significant increases in productivity in the years leading up to the Great Depression. Both the Long and Great Depressions were characterized by overcapacity and market saturation.
Over the period since the Industrial Revolution, technological progress has had a much larger effect on the economy than any fluctuations in credit or debt, the primary exception being the Great Depression, which caused a multi-year steep economic decline. The effect of technological progress can be seen by the purchasing power of an average hour’s work, which has grown from $3 in 1900 to $22 in 1990, measured in 2010 dollars.
There were similar increases in real wages during the 19th century. (See: Productivity improving technologies (historical).) A table of innovations and long cycles can be seen at: Kondratiev wave § Modern modifications of Kondratiev theory. Since surprising news in the economy, which has a random aspect, impact the state of the business cycle, any corresponding descriptions must have a random part at its root that motivates the use of statistical frameworks in this area.
There were frequent crises in Europe and America in the 19th and first half of the 20th century, specifically the period 1815–1939. This period started from the end of the Napoleonic wars in 1815, which was immediately followed by the Post-Napoleonic depression in the United Kingdom (1815–1830), and culminated in the Great Depression of 1929–1939, which led into World War II. See Financial crisis: 19th century for listing and details. The first of these crises not associated with a war was the Panic of 1825.
Business cycles in OECD countries after World War II were generally more restrained than the earlier business cycles. This was particularly true during the Golden Age of Capitalism (1945/50–1970s), and the period 1945–2008 did not experience a global downturn until the Late-2000s recession.
Economic stabilization policy using fiscal policy and monetary policy appeared to have dampened the worst excesses of business cycles, and automatic stabilization due to the aspects of the government‘s budget also helped mitigate the cycle even without conscious action by policy-makers.
In this period, the economic cycle – at least the problem of depressions – was twice declared dead. The first declaration was in the late 1960s, when the Phillips curve was seen as being able to steer the economy. However, this was followed by stagflation in the 1970s, which discredited the theory. The second declaration was in the early 2000s, following the stability and growth in the 1980s and 1990s in what came to be known as the Great Moderation.
Notably, in 2003, Robert Lucas Jr., in his presidential address to the American Economic Association, declared that the “central problem of depression-prevention [has] been solved, for all practical purposes.”Various regions have experienced prolonged depressions, most dramatically the economic crisis in former Eastern Bloc countries following the end of the Soviet Union in 1991.
For several of these countries the period 1989–2010 has been an ongoing depression, with real income still lower than in 1989. In the United States, it is generally accepted that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the final arbiter of the dates of the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. An expansion is the period from a trough to a peak and a recession as the period from a peak to a trough.
The NBER identifies a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production”.Recurrence quantification analysis has been employed to detect the characteristic of business cycles and economic development. To this end, Orlando et al. developed the so-called recurrence quantification correlation index to test correlations of RQA on a sample signal and then investigated the application to business time series.
The said index has been proven to detect hidden changes in time series. Further, Orlando et al., over an extensive dataset, shown that recurrence quantification analysis may help in anticipating transitions from laminar (i.e. regular) to turbulent (i.e. chaotic) phases such as USA GDP in 1949, 1953, etc. Last but not least, it has been demonstrated that recurrence quantification analysis can detect differences between macroeconomic variables and highlight hidden features of economic dynamics.
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